What a Strong El Nino Could Mean for Winter in the Southern Tier

We know you're dreading the cold as much as we are, but the harsh truth is, it's coming. As the days become shorter and summer turns to fall, we're sure it's crossed your mind at least once. 

According to the 2015 Farmer's Almanac, the Southern Tier could be in for yet another wicked winter. In an updated forecast released by NOAA just last week, El Nino is on track to peak during the early part of the 2015-2016 winter season. The official NOAA statement says, "There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016."

What is an El Nino?

El Nino or "Little Boy" dates back to the 1800s when Peruvian fishermen first noticed that there would sometimes be an obscure warm streak around the Christmas holiday.

Google defines El Nino as "an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes affecting the equatorial Pacific region and beyond every few years, characterized by the appearance of unusually warm, nutrient-poor water off northern Peru and Ecuador, typically in late December."

Basically, El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs irregularly when trade winds that usually blow from east to west are weakened. This causes the sea surface temperatures to rise, which sets off a chain reaction of other weather events. El Ninos can be either strong or weak, and can bring us record heat in the summer or chaotic blizzards in the winter.

Anyone remember the winter of '97-'98? That was the last major El Nino to affect the United States, which caused billions of dollars in damages and over 20,000 deaths worldwide according to NOAA.

So what does this mean for the Southern Tier?

Simply, El Nino is not something we can ignore. It's weather patterns are typically unpredictable and full of surprises, so it's bound to send unsettled weather our way from November through April. Don’t hold your breath for a mild season.

Soak up the rest of those summer rays, folks! We could be in for a wild ride this winter. Stay tuned for the latest winter weather developments and predictions.