Spring will arrive late this year, according to America’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil.

Phil saw his shadow when he emerged from his home in Gobblers Knob, PA early this morning. Legend has it that if the groundhog sees his shadow on February 2nd, winter will last six more weeks. If he doesn’t see his shadow, spring will come early.

The tradition began in 1887, but Phil has only predicted an early spring 16 times, according to ABC News.

Of course, Phil’s prognostications are not always accurate. Phil predicted six more weeks of winter in February of 2012. That January to June was listed as the warmest seven-month period since systematic records began being kept in 1895, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.

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